Emerging Threats

Novametrics predicts instability, outbreaks of civil violence, and breeding grounds for terrorism. We also provide an interpretive platform for communication analysis.

In 2013, Novametrics received a Phase II Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR) award from the Office of the Secretary of Defense.

Case Study: Breeding Grounds for Terrorism

In 2012, the United States Army in Africa received reports that Boko Haram influence was waning. Novametrics provided the Army Research Lab (ARL) with analysis to:

  1. Independently assess the influence of Boko Haram
  2. Identify areas increasingly vulnerable to their activities
  3. Evaluate accuracy of the predictions with subsequent events

1. Detecting the Emergence of Boko Haram

Novametrics used a unique time series georeferencing method to show an increase in Boko Haram influence in North Eastern Nigeria. Press "Start" to track the frequency of Boko Haram attacks.

Slide the translucent grey box (lower plot) to view the northward migration of conflicts and emergence of conflicts related to Boko Haram (red dots).

2. Calculating Vulnerability to Future Attacks

Novametrics implemented our "Weak Signal Analysis" to identify the regions becoming vulnerable to Boko Haram. Our proprietary methods integrate and analyze large numbers of socio-cultural and environmental datasets. The analysis is demonstrated below in three steps. Click "Start" for the data integration, click "Analyze" for the weak signal analysis, and click "Verify" to confirm the results.

The three steps in this dynamic graphic illustrate:

  1. Loading Data -- The highly variable (noisy) socio-cultural and environmental data show no clear pattern.
  2. Weak-Signal Analysis -- Once WSA is applied, predictions emerge from the noisy data to reveal vulnerable locations.
  3. Verification -- Reapplying the Boko Haram conflict data (red dots) validates our identification of the most vulnerable regions (brown areas). Conflicts outside the identified areas are targets in the Capital.
The map shows a high-resolution analysis. Vulnerable regions (darker brown) exhibit conflicts attributed to Boko Haram. The widely publicized 2014 kidnapping of Nigerian girls occurred in northeastern Nigeria at a secondary school in the southern Borno.

3. Outcomes Match Predictions

In the months following the assessment (Dec. 2012), Boko Haram increased their activity. In November 2013, the US declares Boko Haram a terrorist group. April 2014, Boko Haram kidnaps over 200 girls from a school in Borno, previously identified by the analysis above as one of the most vulnerable states. Novametrics continues to monitor the evolution of these groups, assess regions that are potential breeding grounds for extremism, and evaluate organizational linkages with al Qaeda.